Ukraine is the gateway to the future of the French defence sector. Op-ed by Arnoud Dassier and Mat Hauser

The French and Ukrainian defence industries are highly complementary, says businessman and investor Arnaud Dassier. He has been working with Ukraine since 2005, including investing in local startups, among them the defence tech project HIMERA.

Arnaud is convinced that close cooperation between Ukraine and France in the defence sector—especially in drones—will benefit both countries and accelerate France’s rearmament. He elaborated on his views in an op-ed for the French publication revueconflits.com, co-authored with Mat Hauser, co-founder of the intelligence company Stratton. With the author’s permission, Defender publishes the English translation of the article.

As in other Western countries, the development of the French defence industry has been focused on the slow creation of increasingly complex and expensive weaponry. However, the full-scale war in Ukraine has shown that many Western weapons are impractical, unsuitable for use, and too costly to risk on the front lines.

Many Ukrainian soldiers admit they avoid using Western drones because they fear losing tens of thousands of euros on a mission that a €500 device could handle just as well. Drone operators near Chasiv Yar confirm that Ukrainian engineers often dismantle Western equipment to extract essential components and use them to build improvised prototypes better suited to the realities of trench warfare in eastern Ukraine.

Unlike France’s pursuit of high-end technology—which has resulted in expensive but sometimes unsuitable equipment for modern warfare—Ukraine has chosen the path of a flexible and highly adaptive defence industry.

In the land of the Cossacks, thousands of drones are produced daily at hundreds of micro-factories, operating under the direct control of combat units. These drones have already proven their effectiveness in all areas—reconnaissance, deep strikes, tactical attacks, and the destruction of military ships. They enable Ukraine to wage a high-tech, semi-guerrilla war powerful enough to hold back the Russian advance.

As of 2024, drone strikes account for 60% of Russian military losses. The Black Sea Fleet has been effectively neutralized thanks to maritime drones like MAGURA and SEA BABY. Meanwhile, Russian oil refineries and logistics centers are under threat from “deep strikes” carried out by ultra-light drones—once used for civilian tasks but now capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia at distances of up to 1,200 km.

This strategy requires significant manufacturing capacity to supply all Ukrainian units, as drone consumption is growing exponentially. In 2024, demand was estimated at 1.4 million units, and by 2025, it will exceed 4 million.

Ukrainians are betting on mass production—affordable, relatively simple-to-manufacture UAVs that are perfectly adapted to the realities of modern warfare. However, quality is not being overlooked either: some Ukrainian manufacturers are already producing autonomous drones resistant to electronic warfare systems, equipped with inertial navigation systems and/or artificial intelligence.

Recently, Ukraine produced its first thousand drones made entirely from local components—without a single Chinese screw.

And what is France doing in the meantime? Announcing plans to establish production capacity for just 700 drones per year… an amount that would barely last a few hours in combat on the Ukrainian front. The French strike drone Aarok will only become available in five years—the estimated time required for testing, whereas Ukrainians conduct similar tests in just a few weeks. Clearly, France will not be able to meet its military drone needs on its own.

At the same time, after the war, Ukraine will have, first, massive drone production capacities that will need to be introduced to international markets, and second, invaluable experience that it can share with its allies and clients. This creates a unique opportunity for French defence giants to establish strategic partnerships with Ukrainian companies now—gaining access to production, servicing, R&D capabilities, and innovative, cost-competitive technologies that have been tested in real combat conditions.

Ukrainians are eager to create joint ventures with Western players with the financial resources, credibility, and international commercial platforms they lack. The French defence industry enjoys an excellent image in Ukraine due to the high quality of its equipment (Caesar guns, aircraft, missiles, transport vehicles, etc.). The complementarity is perfect on paper. In practice, it is important to establish habits of collaboration and a relationship of trust as soon as possible. For example, by meeting Ukrainian needs in terms of financial support, equipment, and technological components.

Otherwise, French companies risk eventually facing formidable Ukrainian competition, offering quality products, proven on the front lines, at significantly lower prices, particularly in emerging markets. And Ukrainian innovation isn’t limited to drones. Ukrainians are developing cruise missiles, electronic warfare systems, and armoured vehicles, all capable of competing with BITD’s flagships. The Caesar cannon itself is not immune to this competition, with the Ukrainians currently producing 150 units per year of their BOGDANA cannon, which will soon incorporate a firing optimisation module 80% cheaper than the equivalent device from KNDS.

“There’s still time to take the night train to Kyiv to show our solidarity with the brave Ukrainians and admire their resilience and creativity by visiting their incredible defence equipment production facilities”

Ukraine could become the China of European defenсe, a high-tech, low-cost research and production facility, allowing it to reduce its dependence on Chinese components or American weapons. More than grand political speeches and utopian promises of distant accession to the European Union, the future of European security and the French defence industry will concretely depend on the establishment of close partnerships with the most efficient Ukrainian companies.

Too few French companies have understood this. Our neighbours, however, are already positioning themselves. The Germans Rheinmetall and Diehl are actively establishing production sites there. The Czechs of CZ have opened small arms production sites there. The Scandinavian countries are the Ukrainians’ leading partners and are planning dozens of co-investment projects based on the “Danish model,” allowing equipment to be produced in Ukraine while benefiting from valuable feedback.

The French defence industry is at an existential turning point. France too: we will not succeed in our rearmament without adapting our production and R&D model. There’s still time to take the night train to Kyiv to show our solidarity with the brave Ukrainians and admire their resilience and creativity by visiting their incredible defence equipment production facilities. We have everything to gain by helping them now to better prepare for tomorrow, together.

Arnaud Dassier

Entrepreneur and investor

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Mat Hauser

Co-founder of Strateon intelligence company

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